WHAT THIS MODEL HELPS US SEE
The table makes frequencies, totals and percentages comparable and keeps benefit, risk and uncertainty in the same view.
LAUNCH · GCSE Biology · Lesson 11 of 18 · ExploreLAUNCH · GCSE Biology · Week 11 · Explore
Stem-Cell Evidence: Benefit, Risk, Uncertainty
Sequence outcome: Discuss potential benefits and risks associated with the use of stem cells in medicine.
🎯 Learning objective: I can analyse simulated stem-cell evidence by calculating outcomes and identifying benefits, risks and limitations.
✅ Success criteria
- I can calculate an outcome percentage from a frequency.
- I can distinguish a possible benefit from a possible risk.
- I can identify why a small, short study leaves uncertainty.
Arrival · previous learningStarter · observe / predictI Do · model the reasoningWe Do · hinge & responseI Do 2 · connect / extendWe Do 2 · scientific model / dataIndependent · evidence & transferExit · receive and use the response
🧪 Evidence Board: analyse a simulated study without turning possibility into certainty.⏱ 40 minutes📍 C41 only🔁 Live Lundy loop↺ Retry without penalty
QUESTIONEVIDENCEPATTERNEXPLANATIONAPPLICATIONEVALUATION
LAUNCH rule: explanation is earned through prediction, observation, measurement, calculation or reasoning from evidence.
🛡 SPACE
🗣 VOICE
👂 AUDIENCE
⚙ INFLUENCE
SPACE available · VOICE waiting · AUDIENCE waiting · INFLUENCE waiting
⏱ 3 min
🚪 Arrival · previous learningRetrieve only what has already been taught
- W11L1: stem cells can divide and differentiate.
- W11L1: evidence, ethical concern and uncertainty are different.
- W5: percentage change made fair comparisons possible.
- Lead-in: what must be known before 12 improved outcomes can be interpreted?
New to this class, absent, or not sure? Everything needed is in the retrieval box above. Read it, point to it or ask a familiar adult to read it exactly.
◆ Supported
- Complete: benefit means a possible __ outcome.
- Point to RISK for a possible harmful outcome.
- Choose the total: 12 out of 20 or 12 alone?
- Lead-in: 10 out of 20 is what percentage?
▲ Standard
- Define benefit in this scientific context.
- Define risk without making it sound certain.
- Calculate 10 ÷ 20 × 100.
- Lead-in: why must a study's total number be reported?
★ Stretch
- Distinguish evidence of no effect from no evidence collected.
- Explain why frequency alone can mislead without the total.
- Name one limitation of a short follow-up.
- Lead-in: what comparison would strengthen a treatment claim?
LAUNCH response routes
📝 write / edit🗣 structured verbal📏 measure / calculate📊 graph / interpret🧪 practical / demonstrate↺ re-attempt
Access changes the response route, not the GCSE Biology entitlement.
🔊 Read-aloud route: a familiar adult may read the task exactly while the text remains visible. No device voice or media permission is required.
QUESTIONEVIDENCEPATTERNEXPLANATIONAPPLICATIONEVALUATION
LAUNCH rule: explanation is earned through prediction, observation, measurement, calculation or reasoning from evidence.
🛡 SPACE
🗣 VOICE
👂 AUDIENCE
⚙ INFLUENCE
SPACE available · VOICE waiting · AUDIENCE waiting · INFLUENCE waiting
⏱ 4 min
🌱 Starter · observe / predictIn a fictional training study, 12 participants improved. Which missing fact is needed first?
LOCAL VISUAL HOOK · FRAME 1
FREQUENCY · number observed
Simulated data. Read the frequency in each group.
LOCAL VISUAL HOOK · FRAME 2
TOTAL · number studied
Both groups: 20. Small.
LOCAL VISUAL HOOK · FRAME 3
PERCENTAGE · frequency ÷ total × 100
Describe only what the table supports.
Commit one first idea. Predictions are held, not marked. Pointing, selecting, saying or signing all count.
Choose one idea. The lesson will test it; nothing is scored or saved.
QUESTIONEVIDENCEPATTERNEXPLANATIONAPPLICATIONEVALUATION
LAUNCH rule: explanation is earned through prediction, observation, measurement, calculation or reasoning from evidence.
🛡 SPACE
🗣 VOICE
👂 AUDIENCE
⚙ INFLUENCE
SPACE available · VOICE waiting · AUDIENCE waiting · INFLUENCE waiting
⏱ 4 min
👩🏫 I Do · model the reasoningMake the first scientific idea visible
BENEFITpossible helpful outcomea favourable outcome supported or suggested by evidence
RISKchance of harmthe probability and seriousness of a possible harmful outcome
UNCERTAINTYwhat is not yet securea limit on what can be concluded from the available evidence
WHAT THIS MODEL DOES NOT SHOW
The numbers are invented for classroom reasoning, the sample is small and no real treatment conclusion can be drawn from them.
Step 1
Label the table SIMULATED TRAINING DATA. Treatment: 12 of 20 improved; comparison: 6 of 20 improved.
Step 2
Calculate 12 ÷ 20 × 100 = 60% and 6 ÷ 20 × 100 = 30%.
Step 3
Describe only what the table supports: improvement was recorded more often in the treatment group in this simulation.
Word help keeps the scientific term visible and adds a plain-language bridge.
📊 Benefit · risk · uncertainty desk
Simulated: treated 12/20 improved, 3/20 had side effects; control 6/20 improved, 0/20 side effects.
Which calculations are right?
Which sentence keeps within the evidence?
Benefit, risk AND uncertainty in one sentence.
QUESTIONEVIDENCEPATTERNEXPLANATIONAPPLICATIONEVALUATION
LAUNCH rule: explanation is earned through prediction, observation, measurement, calculation or reasoning from evidence.
🛡 SPACE
🗣 VOICE
👂 AUDIENCE
⚙ INFLUENCE
SPACE available · VOICE waiting · AUDIENCE waiting · INFLUENCE waiting
⏱ 4 min
🤝 We Do · hinge & responseFour of 20 participants experienced the defined adverse event. Which calculation gives the participant percentage?
Everyone commits before explanation.
Use a button, point, say/sign or let an adult operate the chosen button. A retry is information, not a penalty.
Choose one response, then use the model to explain or retry.
Audience move: the adult names back the Science heard or seen, without upgrading the pupil’s words.
QUESTIONEVIDENCEPATTERNEXPLANATIONAPPLICATIONEVALUATION
LAUNCH rule: explanation is earned through prediction, observation, measurement, calculation or reasoning from evidence.
🛡 SPACE
🗣 VOICE
👂 AUDIENCE
⚙ INFLUENCE
SPACE available · VOICE waiting · AUDIENCE waiting · INFLUENCE waiting
⏱ 4 min
👩🏫 I Do 2 · connect / extendConnect the model to the second idea
Connection: the model is useful when its visible pattern is translated into a scientific explanation.
Connection 1
Add risk: four of 20 treatment participants and one of 20 comparison participants had the defined adverse event.
Connection 2
Add uncertainty: each group is small, follow-up is short and the simulation gives no evidence about long-term outcomes.
Connection 3
A balanced analysis states benefit evidence, risk evidence and at least one limit before any judgement.
MODEL STRENGTH
The table makes frequencies, totals and percentages comparable and keeps benefit, risk and uncertainty in the same view.
MODEL LIMIT
The numbers are invented for classroom reasoning, the sample is small and no real treatment conclusion can be drawn from them.
QUESTIONEVIDENCEPATTERNEXPLANATIONAPPLICATIONEVALUATION
LAUNCH rule: explanation is earned through prediction, observation, measurement, calculation or reasoning from evidence.
🛡 SPACE
🗣 VOICE
👂 AUDIENCE
⚙ INFLUENCE
SPACE available · VOICE waiting · AUDIENCE waiting · INFLUENCE waiting
⏱ 5 min
🤝 We Do 2 · scientific model / dataBenefit-risk-uncertainty analysis lab
Place each evidence statement, then use the frozen set to make one cautious analysis.
READ DATACALCULATECLASSIFYLIMITANALYSE
Cards to place
Matching groups
No evidence classified. Calculate before making a judgement.
🧩 Science glitch · find and repair it
Claim: Sixty per cent improved, so the simulated treatment is proven safe and effective.
The incorrect idea is shown as a challenge, never as teaching.
QUESTIONEVIDENCEPATTERNEXPLANATIONAPPLICATIONEVALUATION
LAUNCH rule: explanation is earned through prediction, observation, measurement, calculation or reasoning from evidence.
🛡 SPACE
🗣 VOICE
👂 AUDIENCE
⚙ INFLUENCE
SPACE available · VOICE waiting · AUDIENCE waiting · INFLUENCE waiting
⏱ 12 min
✏️ Independent · evidence & transferAnalyse the simulated table: calculate four percentages, classify benefit and risk, and state two uncertainties.
👐 Physical route
Simulated data sheet, calculator, percentage frame, benefit-risk-uncertainty grid and pencil.
Same outcome: I can analyse simulated stem-cell evidence by calculating outcomes and identifying benefits, risks and limitations.
🖥 Offline digital / director route
Use the same local table and card lab; no network, account or real patient data is used.
Same evidence: Visible percentage working plus a benefit-risk-uncertainty analysis that does not overclaim.
🧰 Equipment / setupSimulated data sheet, calculator, percentage frame, benefit-risk-uncertainty grid and pencil.
🛡 Safety / sensoryState repeatedly that the dataset is fictional and not medical advice. Keep all cases impersonal and allow a no-discussion calculation route.
🖥 Offline parityUse the same local table and card lab; no network, account or real patient data is used.
No-equipment/access route: A pupil selects numerator, denominator and operation while an adult operates the calculator and scribes exact analysis.
◆ Supported
Complete two percentage calculations with the formula shown, then match one benefit, risk and limit.
Scaffold
Numbers are pre-positioned: frequency ÷ 20 × 100. Use icons and exact scribing if needed.
▲ Standard
Calculate all four percentages and write a three-part analysis.
Scaffold
Use: The data suggest __. However __. We cannot conclude __ because __.
★ Stretch
Calculate all outcomes, compare groups and evaluate how sample size and follow-up affect confidence.
Scaffold
Do not add new biology; deepen the evidence judgement and propose one useful next-data need.
Evidence gate
1 · Pupil decisionPrediction, question, method or choice is visible.
2 · Observable evidenceA result, source note, model state or adult observation is preserved.
3 · Pupil meaningVisible percentage working plus a benefit-risk-uncertainty analysis that does not overclaim.
QUESTIONEVIDENCEPATTERNEXPLANATIONAPPLICATIONEVALUATION
LAUNCH rule: explanation is earned through prediction, observation, measurement, calculation or reasoning from evidence.
🛡 SPACE
🗣 VOICE
👂 AUDIENCE
⚙ INFLUENCE
SPACE available · VOICE waiting · AUDIENCE waiting · INFLUENCE waiting
⏱ 4 min
🎫 Exit · receive and use the responseFinish with an edit or re-attempt on the existing work
Supported
Calculate 6 out of 20 as a percentage.
Standard
State one benefit finding and one uncertainty from the simulated data.
Stretch
Why can the same dataset suggest benefit and still be insufficient for a confident treatment claim?
Adult Audience
The familiar adult genuinely receives the pupil response, then says back the Science they heard or saw. The adult does not add a score or rewrite the pupil.
SPACE available · VOICE waiting · AUDIENCE waiting · INFLUENCE waiting
Receive the pupil’s Voice, complete real Audience, then choose what changes.
Session state is temporary. Reload clears responses; there is no account, upload or saved pupil identity.
QUESTIONEVIDENCEPATTERNEXPLANATIONAPPLICATIONEVALUATION
LAUNCH rule: explanation is earned through prediction, observation, measurement, calculation or reasoning from evidence.
🛡 SPACE
🗣 VOICE
👂 AUDIENCE
⚙ INFLUENCE
SPACE available · VOICE waiting · AUDIENCE waiting · INFLUENCE waiting